By: David Talbot Managing Director, Head of Equity Research, Red Cloud Securities
The World Nuclear Association (WNA) released its bi-annual Nuclear Fuel Report at the September 2025 WNA Symposium, reinforcing growing optimism around nuclear power. Yet, while demand is clearly rising, the message was unmistakable: urgent investment is required now to close an emerging uranium supply gap that could threaten reactor build timelines post-2032. Billions if not trillions of dollars are required to fund the nuclear sector globally. Government money and debt will be required to fund all the concrete and steel and labour training. It will be a challenge to bring on all the new capacity that was suggested.
Positive momentum for nuclear power continues to grow, both due to large scale reactor build and SMRs. The three WNA scenarios for nuclear generating capacity all increased in the 2025 report vs the 2023 report looking out to 2040. The Upper scenario sees 966 GWe in 2040 including 110 GWe of Generic SMR. That is 6.3% CAGR and up 35 GWe over 2023.
The Reference scenario – 746 GWe from 40 countries including 49 GWe of Generic SMR. CAGR of 4.6% and up 60 GWe over last report. The Lower Scenario still 2.7% CAGR – 552 GWe in 2040 incl 10 GWe Generic SMR, up 66 GWe since 2023 forecasts.
Most of this growth is expected to accelerate post-2032—just seven years away.
SMRs play an increasingly important role, especially in the Upper and Reference scenarios. Near-term headwinds include slower-than-expected Japanese reactor restarts; major Korean refurbishments; and war-related disruption at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant. Offsetting positives include Japanese restart pace expected to accelerate; South Korea targets 38% nuclear in its energy mix; France advancing two EPR2 reactors before 2040; U.S. shows bipartisan support for new nuclear and shorter permitting; and Russia’s plans for 17.4 GWe new capacity by 2042.
Uranium Supply: Mine Bottlenecks, Dwindling Secondaries and Geopolitical Uncertainty
Despite strong demand outlooks, primary uranium production is not on track to meet future needs. Top-tier mines are expected to be depleted by the 2030s. WNA extended the discovery-to-production timeline from 8–15 years to 10–20 years – a more realistic but still optimistic view. New production decisions must be made now. Secondary supply, which historically helped fill demand gaps, is in decline and can no longer be relied upon. Enrichment & conversion capacity is tight but expandable, with build times shorter than reactor construction.
Geopolitical segmentation is emerging: Western enrichers are adding capacity, Russian capacity is underutilized but increasingly cut off from Western markets, U.S. sanctions on Russian uranium are delayed (waivers granted through 2028), but these could tighten abruptly, especially post-2026 elections. There is no Russian disruption yet, but once waivers expire, secondary flows from underfeeding may be reduced significantly. The WNA has excluded Russian underfeeding from forecasts, suggesting cautious realism.
Contracting Trends and Market Sentiment
Industry sentiment at the WNA Symposium was upbeat—explorers, developers, and producers expressed confidence in future demand and pricing. There is plenty of demand from utilities but not necessarily a lot of uranium fuel products being contracted in the short term. New contracts are being written with price floors, escalation clauses, and ceiling prices as high as $150/lb (vs. ~$130/lb a year ago). Some producers are withholding production unless prices justify sales, breaking from the traditional “sell everything” model. This more disciplined approach supports a longer-term bullish thesis for uranium pricing.
Investor Implications
Rising prices are likely needed to trigger broader moves in uranium equities, especially beyond the majors. Historically, Q4 is a seasonally strong period for uranium pricing as utilities finalize budgets. Generalist capital remains underexposed to uranium and nuclear themes. While large-cap uranium equities see first inflows, positive sentiment tends to cascade down to mid- and small-caps—especially those with near-term catalysts or discoveries. Exploration and development companies may benefit disproportionately as the market begins to price in the need for new Tier 1 assets.
The nuclear industry is entering a new phase of growth, but the uranium fuel cycle lags behind in preparation. Investment timelines are long, and the industry is already late. Supply gaps are increasingly structural, not cyclical—and that’s where investors can find opportunity. Now is the time for capital to re-enter uranium—and for investors to position ahead of the supply squeeze.
edition of the WNA World Nuclear Fuel Report.
